03/23/2001
By Chris Vognar / The Dallas Morning News
The last of our weekly looks at the top Oscar categories focuses on the biggest prize of all – best picture.
The nominees
(The Dallas Morning News is analyzing the prospects of each nominee in the Academy Awards' major categories. The result: our Oscar Quotient. Nominees have been graded on a scale of 1 to 10. The higher the number, the more likely a victory.)
Gladiator
Oscar Quotient: 8.0
Looking back: Dreamworks' sweeping Roman spectacle blasted into the box office ($186.7 mil) the way alpha-male Russell Crowe charges into the arena in the May sizzler directed by Ridley Scott.
Current buzz: Considered a long shot last fall, it landed 12 Oscar noms (pic with most usually wins) and the Golden Globe for drama. The academy loves long historical epics. The average best pic runs 156 min.; this is 154. Vegas odds even. Considered "most-likely" unless big striped pussycat pounces.
If it wins: The academy continues its hallowed tradition of rewarding big-budget location epics that employ lots of people (even if some are computer-generated) and make lots of money.
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Oscar Quotient: 7.5
Looking back: Acclaimed December release that director Ang Lee pitched as "Sense and Sensibility with martial arts" took off like its flying swords-women, grossing more than any foreign-language film in U.S. history ($100 million).
Current buzz: Mandarin-language fantasy may not have binged big in China, but it won 10 Oscar noms and bellwether Los Angeles Film Critics award. Directors Guild of America gave New York-based Lee, who grew up in Taiwan, its big prize. In 52 years, DGA and Oscar have disagreed only four times.
If it wins: Proves that 2000 really was the Year of the Dragon. Also that the academy is broadening its horizons to include Asia's vital film centers.
Traffic
Oscar Quotient: 5.5
Looking back: Hard-hitting December drug-wars drama with strong ensemble and inspired use of film stock, hand-held camera and cross-cuts won critical lauds and a $102 mil fix at the B.O.
Current buzz: Named best pic by tough New York film critics, the expose got Screen Actors Guild nod for best ensemble (tantamount to best pic) but pundits wonder if director Steven Soderbergh's double entry won't splt vote. Ted Koppel saw it twice, was so impressed that he did five Nightline segments on its issues.
If it wins: Since Traffic takes an anti-establishment stand on the government's losing war against drugs, this marks the first time in years that the conservative academy has stepped out to make a gutty political statement.
Erin Brockovich
Oscar Quotient: 2.5
Looking back: Released last March, the entertaining docudrama, about a kicky legal assistant who takes on a polluting utility, proved a crowd-pleaser with healthy box office ($125.6 mil).
Current buzz: Vegas is offering 3-1 odds on the onetime front-runner that also pulled noms for director Steven Soderbergh, Julia Roberts, Albert Finney and original screenwriter Susannah Grant.
If it wins: Proves again that the real best pic doesn't win but affirms that its one-time independent maverick director can put his personal imprint on a formulaic Hollywood flick and make it sing.
Chocolat
Oscar Quotient: 1.0
Looking back: Women especially loved this December confection about a candymaking Aphrodite in an uptight French town, but critics proved less sugary. Village Voice called it "airy, pseudo-folkloric gibberish at best."
Current buzz: Lowest-earner ($55.9 mil) of the five Oscar contenders, the romantic fable owes its best pic, actress and supporting actress nominations to Miramax's practiced publicity machine. Academy reportedly shame-faced over entry.
If it wins: Miramax winning streak persists, sending chills through Las Vegas and London oddsmakers, who rated it 12-1 and 16-1 respectively.
